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publication cover Youth, Identity and Security
Synthesis Report

Author(s): Susanne Gratius (FRIDE); Rita Santos and Sílvia Roque (Peace Studies Group (NEP/CES))

The Youth, Identity and Security cluster has dealt with diverse approaches towards youth and urban violence, particularly the roles of women and girls. Focus was also paid to the inter-generational and gender dynamics of urban violence. With regard to local responses, the security sector has been at the heart of the debate, while structural reforms of the justice and prison systems and socio-economic measures have been scarce. This report combines the results of empirical research was based on case studies in eight countries: Brazil, Cape Verde, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras, Mozambique, and Venezuela and provides recommendations to the EU on the political and programmatic level.

publication cover Working with Media to Prevent Conflict: Cluster Synthesis Report

Author(s): Zuleika Candan and Richard Reeve (International Alert)

The Media, Information Flows and Conflict cluster has aimed to understand how information flows can contribute to or undermine peace in post-conflict countries and what challenges media face in reporting accurately and responsibly. Drawing on engagement and research in Liberia, Nepal, Sierra Leone, Timor-Leste and southeastern Europe, this synthesis addresses three broad questions: how people access information in conflict-affected countries; how this information influences the peace they experience; what challenges media face in providing reliable information. This synthesis concludes with seven suggested principles for engagement by the EU and other donors with media in conflict-affected countries.

publication cover Climate Change and Conflict
Synthesis Report

Author(s): Dennis Taenzler (adelphi); Janani Vivekananda (International Alert); Daniela Kolarova (PDCI); Thanos Dokos (Eliamep)

The IfP-EW Climate Change and Conflict cluster explored the linkages between climate change, conflict and fragility. Through the review and development of conflict analysis approaches, in-country research, regional dialogue and meetings, the implications of current and future climate impacts on security in fragile contexts were analysed, in particular the ability of governance structures and institutions to manage these changes. This synthesis report outlines key recommendations on how these complex and interlinked issues could be addressed and integrated into the policy and response mechanisms of local, national, regional and international institutions.

publication cover IfP-EW Summary Report

Author(s): Terri Beswick (Clingendael)

From a micro-level discussion of armed violence to exploring the multiplying impact of climate change and media, this summary of the thematic clusters introduces some cross-cutting perspectives of conflict and conflict prevention that have real added-value for the development and implementation of early warning conflict-prevention policy. One of the key strengths of the IfP-EW project lay in its success in improving collaboration and networking amongst research institutions, think-tanks, academia and civil society organisations, bringing together a wealth of expertise and experience on conflict prevention and peacebuilding from a variety of perspectives, advancing dialogue and strengthening collaboration within EU institutions on responses to early warning and conflict prevention.

publication cover Media, Youth and Conflict Prevention in Sierra Leone

Author(s): Nick Oatley and Rashmi Thapa (Search for Common Ground)

This report outlines the media landscape in Sierra Leone and reflects on the role of media and youth in relation to violence in the period following the declaration of peace in 2002. The research shows that the country lacks a truly independent media sector which is still fraught with political influence and intimidation. However, the trend has improved markedly in the last two years. In a country of extreme poverty, limited electricity and only 41 percent literacy, radio is the preferred channel for information and communication for up to 90 percent of the population, although the Sierra Leonean media market is diverse and growing.

publication cover Violent Women and Violence Against Women
Gender Relations in the Maras and Other Street Gangs of Central America’s Northern Triangle Region

Author(s): Isabel Aguilar Umaña and Jeanne Rikkers (Interpeace)

The youth gangs of Central America’s Northern Triangle are mainly comprised of men; nevertheless, women are present in multiple ways in the lives of gang members, either as mothers, sisters, girlfriends, friends or fellow gang members. This publication is based on the findings of an exploratory study of the role of women and gender-based relations in the inner circles of these gangs, examining the motivations of girls and teenagers to join street gangs, their experiences as women in these groups and why some of them decide to leave. The publication concludes with a series of policy and funding recommendations to international policy makers to ensure that that vulnerable young girls and teenage women who are victims of gender violence receive appropriate and timely interventions.

publication cover Nine Strategies to Prevent Youth Violence in Central America
Policy Recommendations for the European Union

Author(s): Isabel Aguilar Umaña and Jeanne Rikkers (Interpeace)

Violence in Central America is widespread and is a major concern. Youth are particularly targeted and vulnerable, both as victims and perpetrators of violence. There is a number of risk factors for youth to become victims of violence. The recommendations set out in this report call for the adoption of a holistic approach to prevent youth violence and emphasise that the actions taken be effective and grounded in sound principles of youth and adolescent policy, such as respect for human rights; promotion of a culture of peace; inclusion and respect for pluralism; diversity; gender equality; youth leadership and participation.

publication cover Early Warning and Conflict Prevention by the EU
Learning lessons from the 2008 post-election violence in Kenya

Author(s): Sébastien Babaud, James Ndung’u (Saferworld)

This report looks at the way conflict early warning, as well as other conflict-related information and analysis, was taken into account, processed and acted upon by EU actors in Kenya, before, during and after the violence which broke out after the December 2007 presidential elections. Drawing from this experience, the report proposes a number of recommendations to improve the EU early warning-early response system. It also focuses on the Kenyan early warning and peacebuilding architecture, the challenges faced and opportunities to overcome them. The report suggests the EU should consider empowering conflict-affected communities to identify their main security threats and to respond to them in a constructive and peaceful way to improve the link between early warning and early response.

publication cover Youth and Urban Violence in San Salvador, Rio de Janeiro and Praia
Public Policies, Community-based Responses and Recommendations

Author(s): Carla Alfonso, Katia Cardoso, Rita Santos, Sílvia Roque (Peace Studies Group (NEP/CES))

Often perceived as the most dangerous actor in urban violence scenarios, youth has increasingly become a target of governmental agencies and policies, as well as civil society initiatives, specifically in countries facing epidemic levels of youth mortality as a result of violence. Brazil and El Salvador are both at the top of the world rankings of youth homicide and plagued with youth collective violence. In Cape Verde, political and media debate names youth involvement in violence as a key national concern. This report provides an overview of key public security policies and community-based initiatives addressing the issue of youth violence in the three contexts.

publication cover Improving Institutional Capacity For Early Warning
Synthesis Report

Author(s): Terri Beswick (Clingendael)

As EU external action makes the transition from its pre- to post-Lisbon reality, the challenge is to implement an early warning (EW) system that matches the goal of early action to prevent conflicts. The Lisbon Treaty provided a strong mandate for EU institutions to engage with conflict prevention; however, the corresponding political leadership is not evident. This research cluster has yielded new insights into the working of EU actors and instruments on EW responses for conflict prevention. However, the overarching findings reveal a policy without direction. In response, the report calls for a dedicated EU strategy for EW conflict prevention.

publication cover EU Early Warning and Early Response Capacity for Conflict Prevention in the Post-Lisbon Era

Author(s): Terri Beswick (Clingendael)

The post-Lisbon external action architecture for EU conflict prevention is by no means established. As of now, any number of institutional, organisational and even staffing decisions have yet to be made. Against this backdrop, this mapping of the EU’s institutional capacity for early warning and conflict prevention represents a tentative overview of where we are now and the institutional framework that will govern EU early warning and response actions for the foreseeable future. The mapping discusses what has changed in the post-Lisbon era and presents the new bodies and initiatives that have been established as a result of these changes.

publication cover Early Warning, Early Response? Learning Lessons from the 2010 Crisis in Kyrgyzstan

Author(s): Sébastien Babaud, Katya Quinn Judge (Saferworld)

This report examines the way conflict early warning, conflict-related information and analysis were taken into account, processed and acted upon by EU actors in Kyrgyzstan during the 2010 crisis. Drawing from this experience, the report proposes a number of recommendations to improve EU early warning-early response systems. It identifies local, national and international capacities involved in early warning and peacebuilding activities in Kyrgyzstan, the challenges they face and how they are trying to overcome them. The report suggests that, to improve the link between early warning and early response, the EU should consider empowering conflict-affected communities to identify their main security threats and respond to them in a constructive and peaceful way.

publication cover Sustaining the Conversation: Media, Information Flows and Conflict in Liberia

Author(s): Richard Reeve (International Alert)

Just as important as the realities of crime and violence are the means by which information on sources and manifestations of conflict is communicated, as these help to determine popular perceptions of security or insecurity. This briefing paper aims to understand the role of the media and other information channels in influencing public understanding of the dynamics of violence and developing perceptions of security in Liberia. It analyses the role that media can play, positive or negative, in influencing people’s perceptions of insecurity and the dynamics of violence. It also addresses the obstacles or challenges which the media face in playing a positive role.

publication cover Urban Violence in Caracas and Rio de Janeiro: Local and European Responses

Author(s): Susanne Gratius and Marcelo Valença (FRIDE)

Caracas and Rio de Janeiro are prominent examples of urban violence. Although local responses vary, police reform is a common strategy applied by the authorities in both cities and new police policies represent a shift towards early warning and conflict prevention. Decreasing homicide rates and positive public opinion polls illustrate successful security initiatives in Rio de Janeiro, yet alarming homicide rates in Caracas prove that governmental responses have not yet been successful. This report compares both experiences of communitarian policing and identifies possibilities for bilateral cooperation on public security, concluding with a series of recommendations for the European Union and some proposals for the strengthening of tripartite cooperation to tackle urban violence through early warning and conflict-prevention policies.

publication cover The EU’s Potential And Limits For Early Warning In Bolivia, Colombia And Venezuela

Author(s): Susanne Gratius (FRIDE)

Although all three are Andean countries, conflicts in Bolivia, Colombia and Venezuela do not follow similar logic and require different responses from the EU. While tensions in Bolivia are part of a social conflict based on internal divisions, Colombia has still not resolved its armed conflict and Venezuela’s widespread violence is the result of de-institutionalisation and political polarisation. Due to its long-term engagement, strong presence and multiple contacts, the EU has an acknowledged and broad capacity for conflict analysis, prevention and resolution in Bolivia and Colombia. The EU’s engagement in those two countries contrasts with low visibility and a practical absence of security-related projects in Venezuela. This report stresses the need to improve early warning and conflict-prevention capacities in Bolivia and Colombia and calls for a European response on increasing violence in Venezuela.

publication cover Practice Note: Conflict-Sensitive Responses to Climate Change in South Asia

Author(s): Janani Vivekananda

This note explains the importance of using a conflict-sensitive approach to responding to climate change in South Asia. It offers guidelines and emerging principles on how climate change and development policy makers and practitioners can promote peace-positive adaptation actions which can yield the double dividend of building resilience to climate change and conflict. Issues of water, land, energy and food security are highly affected by climate change. At the same time, inappropriate governance of these issues lies at the root of conflicts across the region. The note proposes that engagement in these areas needs to be approached in a comprehensive way which maximises the productive capacity of local communities, while also minimising the risk of instability and conflict.

publication cover Water, Crisis and Climate Change in India: A Policy Brief

Author(s): Dennis Taenzler, Lukas Ruettinger, Katherina Ziegenhagen (adelphi); Gopalakrishna Murthy, Academy of Gandhian Studies

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity due to climate change may have significant implications for the quality and quantity of water in India. India’s water resources are under increasing pressure from population growth, economic development, industrialisation, urbanisation and inefficient water use. Several internal water disputes already existing in India between states, communities and/or water user groups in the domestic and the industrial sectors may be aggravated. Approaches need to be promoted to reduce the overall amount of future water stress and improve water management capacities. Additionally, joint monitoring, planning of water user groups, and initiatives for education and training on water, climate change and crisis can enable water user groups to recognise crisis potential at an early stage.

publication cover Journalism in Transition: Media, Information Flows and Conflict in Nepal

Author(s): Rabindra Gurung, International Alert

Just as important as the realities of crime and violence are the means by which information about sources and manifestations of conflict is communicated, as these help to determine popular perceptions of security or insecurity. This briefing paper aims to understand the role of the media in influencing public understanding of the dynamics of violence and developing perceptions of security in Nepal. It analyses the role that media can play, positive or negative, in influencing people’s perceptions of insecurity and the dynamics of violence. It also addresses the obstacles or challenges which the media face in playing a positive role.

publication cover Water, Crisis and Climate Change in Uganda: A Policy Brief

Author(s): Lukas Ruettinger and Dennis Taenzler (adelphi); Dr Paddy Musana and Bangirana Narcisio (Peace and Conflict Studies MA Programme, Makerere University)

Although endowed with abundant renewable water resources, Uganda faces huge challenges in the water sector. Pressure on and competition around water resources are increasing. This can lead to conflict potential, especially if it leads to unequal water access and availability and interacts with other conflict factors such as marginalisation or past conflicts. Pastoralist conflicts in Karamoja and along the cattle corridor, as well as the links between water and land grabbing, exemplify these dynamics. However, water can also be a source of peace and cooperation if managed in an equitable and sustainable way: participatory management of ecosystems, conflict-sensitive water infrastructure development and improvement of conflict management in water management institutions are some examples of how water conflicts can be prevented.

publication cover Multilevel Dynamics in the EU’s Approach to Preventive Action in Armenia

Author(s): Maria Raquel Freire and Licínia Simão (Centre for Social Studies, University of Coimbra)

The development of a partnership between the EU and the wider region, the South Caucasus, has raised expectations for peace and stability in the pan-European space, building on the EU’s presence and active policies. By looking at EU early warning and preventive diplomacy in Armenia, this report seeks to highlight challenges to and opportunities for EU policies, instruments and action, assessing the impact of EU engagement in preventive terms and with regard to the goal of promoting security and stability. The report advances policy recommendations regarding areas where there is room for improvement.

publication cover Youth, Collective Urban Violence and Security: Key Findings

Author(s): Peace Studies Group (NEP/CES)

Based on case studies in Rio de Janeiro, San Salvador, Praia and Bissau, this paper discusses three main challenges facing research and policy making regarding collective urban youth violence. It argues for a shift of focus in research from the analysis of “problematic” youth to how violence impregnates daily lives and becomes normalised through specific local, social and political conditions; argues for a change of focus in the analysis of the violent mobilisation of youth, emphasising the need to address the appeal of symbolic revenues permeating the search for valued social status and possibilities in contexts of adversity and violence; supports an urgent shift at global and national policy levels, affirming that repressive policies have hitherto failed to contain youth violence or improve preventive policy design.

publication cover Climate Change Impacts on Socio-environmental Conflicts
Vulnerability in Facing Climate Change and Social Conflicts in Mexico

Author(s): Fabricio Brodziak, Ana Lucía García and Luis Gómez Chow

Due to its social, economic, institutional, and geographical situation, Mexico is highly sensitive to the effects of climate change and other extreme meteorological phenomena. Some experts see the changes in climate as a result of natural climate variability. Others argue Mexico’s environmental situation exemplifies the effects of global warming and climate change and that if these are not countered, Mexico may be susceptible to social conflict as vulnerability amongst different communities and groups increases. The authors propose two models to explain the relationship between climate change and conflict, and the mitigation and adaptation policies needed to face the challenges it poses.

publication cover Water, Crisis and Climate Change Assessment Framework (WACCAF)

Author(s): Lukas Ruettinger, Antoine Morin, Annabelle Houdret, Dennis Taenzler, Clementine Burnley

The Water, Crisis, and Climate Change Assessment Framework (WACCAF) is a tool allowing for a practical assessment of existing or future conflict trends arising from increased competition over water access and/or availability between user and/or management groups in the water sector. Competition and insufficient water availability can be caused by natural phenomena such as climate change or by unequal allocation. Taking a look at the root causes of these conflicts, the tool considers crises in the broader context. It is based on the assumption that conflicts over natural resources and the environment are always embedded in a broader setting, where socio-political, environmental and economic factors create potential crisis situations, but also offer entry points for cooperation.

publication cover Conflict Early Warning Challenges in a Post War Context: The Case of the EU in Sri Lanka

Author(s): Mais Yacoub, International Alert

This report analyses the EU’s institutional capacity to carry out early warning, early action and conflict prevention in Sri Lanka. It looks critically at the post-war context in Sri Lanka, and the challenges and opportunities presented to the EU in this new chapter of the country’s history. Given the complexities of this post-war context, the report examines how the EU could ensure conflict trends which might lead to future outbreaks of violence are monitored and mitigated through a holistic integration of conflict monitoring and analysis using appropriate post war indicators, resulting in the appropriate early warning and action response.

publication cover Women and Gun Violence
Key Findings from Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), San Salvador (El Salvador) and Maputo (Mozambique)

Author(s): Rita Santos, Sílvia Roque, Sara Araújo, Tatiana Moura (NEP/CES)

Gender expectations and attitudes both condition and are conditioned by small arms dissemination and use. Although men constitute the majority of the direct casualties of gun violence, large numbers of women and girls are also disproportionately affected, either directly or indirectly. Because of their sex, women are more likely to become victims of armed domestic violence or sexual violence at gunpoint. Many more live in fear of armed violence and have to cope with the effects of missing loved ones, as well as the broader political, social and economic consequences of armed conflict. This report sheds light on two key factors at the heart of this violence: the dissemination and misuse of small arms, and deep-rooted gender power imbalances.

publication cover Walk the Talk
The EU needs an effective early warning system to match its ambitions to prevent conflict and promote peace

Author(s): Lucia Montanaro and Julia Schünemann

This paper argues that given the EU’s global ambitions in conflict prevention and peacebuilding, a number of changes are necessary to improve the EU early warning and response system. The reforms of the Lisbon Treaty and the establishment of the EEAS do not go far enough: The scattered strands of the EU early warning system need to be woven together so that the EU can be cost effective and maximise its potential impact. The current system suffers from weaknesses in the production, communication, warning receptivity and disconnects between its early warning and early action. This paper identifies the key constraints to an effective system and suggests ways to overcome them.

publication cover Climate Change Impacts on Socio-environmental Conflicts:
Diagnosis and Challenges of the Argentinean Situation

Author(s): Pablo Lumerman, Jimena Psathakis and María de los Ángeles Ortiz

This report addresses how climate change impacts, enhances and creates new socio-environmental conflicts. It argues that a conflict-sensitive approach in the development and implementation of public policies on climate change issues and the promotion of early-warning systems in this field will allow us to deal more constructively with present conflicts and to prevent future ones. It is divided into two sections: the first section analyses the links between climate change impacts and socio-environmental conflicts, and the second includes suggestions on reducing the impacts of climate change, by using a comprehensive, cross-sector and interdisciplinary approach.

publication cover Los Impactos Del Cambio Climático Sobre Los Conflictos Socio-Ambientales:
Diagnóstico y desafíos de la situación Argentina

Author(s): Pablo Lumerman, Jimena Psathakis y María de los Ángeles Ortiz

El presente informe aborda la temática de cómo los impactos del cambio climático generan y potencian conflictos socioambientales. En él, se argumenta que la implementación de un enfoque sensible al conflicto para el desarrollo y la implementación de políticas públicas en el abordaje del cambio climático, y la promoción de sistemas de alerta temprana permiten enfrentar conflictos actuales y prevenir los futuros de forma más constructiva. El informe está dividido en dos secciones: la primera, analiza la relación entre los impactos del cambio climático y los conflictos socio ambientales; la segunda, incluye ciertas recomendaciones para la reducción de los impactos del cambio climático a través de un enfoque integral, multisectorial y multidisciplinario.

publication cover Evaluating the EU’s role and challenges in Sudan and South Sudan
Sudan and South Sudan Case Study

Author(s): Joost van der Zwan

This report analyses the EU’s institutional capacity to carry out conflict early warning, early action, and conflict prevention in two of the most conflict-ridden and war-affected countries in the world: Sudan and South Sudan. It analyses the institutional aspects of EU conflict early warning approaches and assesses the extent to which they are applied in-country and in Brussels to inform policies, strategies and programming processes. It provides a number of recommendations on how the EU can overcome challenges and constraints so that it can better link early warning to effective & timely response to prevent conflict and build peace, under the new Lisbon Treaty architecture. The report concludes by noting that the EU needs to identify its peacebuilding niche in a heavily crowded field of actors. If it decides its niche is related to early warning, conflict prevention and peacebuilding, it needs to prove this through sustained political willingness to engage on the crucial conflict issues discussed above and invest heavily in building up its systems, networks, capacity and tools to be able to play a viable role in both Sudan and South Sudan. The key here would be to develop a coherent approach that is fully grounded in an understanding of the realities of the different conflicts, and developing and mobilising the type of complex political engagement and partnerships that are needed to deliver concrete results in terms of improved stability and security for the Sudanese and South Sudanese people.

publication cover The European Commission Early-warning Architecture and Crisis-response Capacity

Author(s): Sébastien Babaud and Natalia Mirimanova

Beyond being the world’s biggest aid donor, the European Union (EU) has gradually shown its willingness to become a “global actor”. Within the pre-Lisbon arrangements, the European Commission (EC) was in charge of designing and implementing EU development co-operation strategies and programmes. Over the years, it has developed policies and stepped up its capacities to analyse and respond to conflict through a wide range of instruments. Its wide presence on the ground, thanks to the network of EC Delegations around the world, added to the financial weight of its cooperation programmes, provided the EC with the potential to act as an important conflict prevention and crisis response actor. This paper intends to map out the pre-Lisbon EC early warning system and outlines some initial cross-cutting observations on its performance to date.

publication cover The Early warning and Conflict prevention Capability of the Council of the European Union
A Mapping of the Pre-Lisbon Period

Author(s): Clingendael Conflict Research Unit

In the mid-1990s, the atrocities in Rwanda and former Yugoslavia prompted renewed attention to the concept of early warning and underscored the importance of adequate systems to predict, prevent and respond to the eruption of violent conflict. Around that same time, the European Union started to build up its capacity to forecast crisis situations and, where possible and appropriate, take action accordingly. This paper provides an overview of the early warning and conflict prevention bodies and instruments within the Council of the European Union, depicting the state of affairs before the enactment of the Lisbon Treaty. It finds that while the Council made significant steps in building its early warning and conflict prevention architecture, there are still a number of possible gaps and limitations that merit further consideration.

publication cover Climate Change Conflict and Fragility

Author(s): Janani Vivekananda, Dan Smith

This report explores the complexities of responding to climate change in fragile and conflict affected contexts. It highlights the interaction between the impact of climate change and the social and political realities in which people live and stresses that it is this that will determine their capacity to adapt. To be effective, the goal of policy responses must be to address the political dimension of adapting to climate change, and the underlying causes of vulnerability where the state is unable to carry out its core functions. The report sets out five policy objectives and some key observations on getting the institutional structures right in order to achieve this goal. The reports findings urge policy makers to look beyond technical fixes and to address the interlinked political, social and institutional constraints to effective responses.

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